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Thread: MLB season 2017

  1. #1
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    MLB season 2017

    I know it's early but I saw these odds for the overall world series winner this season and thought I'd share them as a discussion point. I like the game but don't know it as well as a lot of people and I'd be interested in getting a more knowledgeable take on it.

    Chicago Cubs - 9/2
    Cleveland Indians/Boston Red Sox - 13/2
    Houston Astros - 10/1
    Washington Nationals/LA Dodgers 12/1
    NY Mets - 16/1
    NY Yankees - 20/1

    Longest odds from these are the Padres at 500/1.
    Last edited by Prime Time; 11-19-2017 at 06:00 PM.
    "Eat my ass, Mooney"

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    As it's still ridiculously early in the season it's hard to get a good read on how the season will play out. But by going by the way teams are playing now and the squads certain teams have, I'd be shocked if the winner doesn't come from the Indians, Astros, Cubs or Yankees. Wouldn't be surprised if we had a replay of last year but with the results the other way around.

  3. #3
    Senior Member DBPanterA's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prime Time View Post
    Quiet in here.

    I know it's early but I saw these odds for the overall world series winner this season and thought I'd share them as a discussion point. I like the game but don't know it as well as a lot of people and I'd be interested in getting a more knowledgeable take on it.

    Chicago Cubs - 9/2
    Cleveland Indians/Boston Red Sox - 13/2
    Houston Astros - 10/1
    Washington Nationals/LA Dodgers 12/1
    NY Mets - 16/1
    NY Yankees - 20/1

    Longest odds from these are the Padres at 500/1.
    It all depends on if you are interested in learning a bit more about the game or if you are looking to make a little money One of the things with the Vegas or betting lines is that the more action a team has, the worse the odds become. There are certain fan bases that generally throw down money every year (happens in the NFL with the Packers and Cowboys fans, for example).

    The MLB Baseball season consists of 162 games in 185 days, so it very much is a marathon where each team will have streaks where they outperform their expectations, and conversely, perform worse than expected. I've often heard analysts speak about splitting the season into 1/4ths, so 40 games at a time. There are quite a few teams currently outperforming what was expected of them prior to the season starting such as the Yankees, the Rockies, and a handful of others hanging around .500 that were not expected to do so (Twins, Brewers, and D'backs). There are also a few teams that are performing quite poorly for a myriad of reasons like the Royals, Mets, and Giants. I would even put the Cubs into performing poorly as their starting pitching has been mediocre at best. The New York Mets have a tattered starting pitching rotation and missing key components of their line-up, and I would be tempted to say right now that their season is on the brink of ending if things don't get turned around in the next few weeks as the whole they are digging is going to be very hard to overcome.

    I like Eddieg2005's idea of Indians, Astros, Cubs, and Yankees, but would also throw in the Nationals. The Indians starting pitching has been poor, sans Carlos Carrasco, and their bull pen has not been as dominant as last year. The Yankees have a very potent line-up to go along with an incredibly nasty bull pen that becomes so critical to any team's changes of winning in October and winning it all. I personally like the Astros, and prior to the season said to friends I thought they would win it all. The Astros have a nice balanced line-up with some great younger players with a few quality veterans. The key to the Astros is their use of bull pen arm Chris Devenski, who gives that team such an advantage as he key given them 2-3 shut down innings every couple of days and helps preserve other arms in their pen, similar to how the Indians use Andrew Miller.

    The key, like any sport, is the ability for these teams to stay healthy, and to perform better than expected. Last year the Cubs starting 5 pitchers started 152 of the 162 regular season games.

  4. #4
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    What do you make of the Orioles so far? They've mostly looked good when I've caught them.
    "Eat my ass, Mooney"

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    The AL East is the toughest division for me in baseball. I struggled before the season to split the Red Sox, Yankees and Baltimore. I thought perhaps this could be the year Baltimore make a big run, but they do look weaker to me than last year. I thought that perhaps it would be Machados' breakout year. Granted last season was pretty good for him! He was my pick for the AL MVP before the season started. However I think they may have a little bit of a bad period coming up. The home runs they always seem to hit should keep them in some games, but personally I feel you need to have a great closing pitcher. And with the injury to Britton I think that's going to cost them quite a few games. Hopefully for their sakes he is back when they are hoping. Still between Red Sox and the Yankees though for me for that division. The signing of Sale was huge as I've been a big vocalist on my negative thoughts on David Price and his chokejobs.

    I agree with, DB, on the Astros. I had it between them and the Indians in the AL. For the exact same reasons. They both have a young squad. They both made good signings in the offseason. And the core they needed to keep from last season have gotten that year of experience that they needed. The winner of the World Series should come from either of these two for me.
    Last edited by Eddieg2005; 05-12-2017 at 10:47 AM.

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    Senior Member DBPanterA's Avatar
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    I agree with the Eddie in regards to the Orioles. Not sure how "nerdy" everyone gets around here, but I frequent fangraphs daily, which is kind of the epicenter of sabermetrics and statistical analysis. A few days ago they had a story on the Orioles, which is linked here:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/well-...oing-it-again/

    The Orioles just somehow always seem to be in it every year, even when the numbers paint a different picture. While the O's bull pen is currently a little banged up with Britton on the DL and Darren O'Day pitching poorly, they have found ways to win.

    The interesting thing to watch is if some of these under-performing teams begin to trade away their desirable pieces in order to build for the future and when they decide to pull the trigger. It's still pretty early to be making significant trades, but when the trades begin, I expect certain teams in contention to look to upgrade their bull pens, starting rotations, and line-ups where they have holes.

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    So it looks like Houston are the only side in the rest of the American League who can stop the team from the East?

    Also looks, though it's early days, as if the Mets were the most over-rated of the teams in that odds list, then a long gap, and then the Red Sox.
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    As you said, it's early days. Just ridiculously hard to predict how everything will unfold when we still have 120+ games to go in most cases. If the season was to end now Astros would be the number 1 seed in the AL, Yankees the 2, assuming they give the top three seeds to the division winners you'd have Minnesota as the 3 seed and then Baltimore would be the 4 seed even though they have a better record. I loathe that. I've always felt the seeding should go to the teams with the best records, regardless of if you win a division. Loathed it in the NBA. Anyway, back to it. So the top three seeded teams would then sit and wait while the 4 and 5 seed play a one off wild card game. Loser is knocked out and the winner goes on to play the 1 seed while the 2 and 3 seed square off in a best of 5 series.

    In regards to your question though at the moment Houston/Yankees look the best teams in baseball for me. That link DB posted shows just how good Baltimore are year in and year out. They are always there, they just struggle to make that leap for a deep finish or struggle to make the playoffs down the stretch. I still am waiting for the Indians to make a run though. They'll click at some stage.

    Where as in the NL you probably have the Nats playing the best. But I just can't back them. They choke. And always seem to choke when I'm on them. I put them up there with David Price in the you can't rely on them and discount them at your own risk. Cardinals are doing what they always seem to do. Cubs are where I had them to be. Thought they'd start off a bit slow and then power home in the second half of the season. I think the NL is a lot harder to predict as you have a couple surprise packet teams who could do a lot of damage and cause some upsets.

  9. #9
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    So, four months later... anyone willing to stick their neck out yet?

    Most bookies seem to be making the Dodgers the favourites, with the Indians just behind. Thoughts?

    Here's the final bracket

    American League

    Cleveland
    NY Yankees

    Houston
    Boston


    National League

    LA Dodgers
    Arizona

    Washington
    Chicago Cubs

  10. #10
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    Cleveland and Houston should be winning their series respectivaley. I still think the winner comes from the outcome of Houston and Cleveland. I'm leaning towards it being Cleveland though. They'll beat Dodgers 4-1.

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    An ugly night for Chris Sale seems to suggest you might be right about Houston. A while ago I heard nothing but about how great he was doing but that has really dried up of late. Was he over pitched or is there another explanation for the way he's gone off the boil?

    Comprehensive first win for Cleveland, too.

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    I believe he actually gave up 4 homers in his last regular season game. So he didn't end the season on the best of notes either. And against the best team, or 2nd best team in baseball, I expected him to not have the best game. But I wasn't expecting that. I look back on when they signed David Price and he pitched great for them all regular season but he went to absolute crap come the playoffs for them. I don't believe he won them a game by memory. As good as he pitched in the regular season it made me think of him and if the same was going to happen. Well it looks like it has.

    Yeah Cleveland played well game 1. This game 2 is wild.

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    Sale was struggling a bit by the end of the season, for sure. And looks like it might be a sweep for Houston.

    Big win for the Cubs in their opener. Don't think you can rule out a repeat of last year's world series.

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    Chris Sale in the later months historically is a different pitcher. His breaking stuff lacks bite and its obvious he tires once he goes over a certain amount of innings but when you're as good as he is, its hard to say to your manager that you shouldn't pitch as much.

    I picked an Indians/Cubs Rematch. Partly because I don't believe in the Dodgers or Nationals. The Dodgers should win the National league, but when they've been pushed, they have cracked. Cubs overall team isn't as good as last year but they know what it takes. Get pitching like they got tonight, and they'll be tough to beat.

    Joe Giradi flat out blew the game for the Yankees. That was fantastic.

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    Well Nats have evened up that series now. And Arizona I think is being very underrated. I have no doubt they can push the Dodgers.

    I didn't see the game but saw over Twitter fans complaining he didn't challenge a foul tip or something.

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    Couple of results against the grain keeping the American League series alive. From what I've read it sounds like it was a story of two pitchers, Tanaka for NY and Price for the Red Sox.

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    Gee whiz. Yankees going to push this to the decider.

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    The Indians completely unravelled.

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    Bloody hell. Chances the Yankees make it past Houston?

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    Agh very slim. Think it'll be a high scoring series. But Houston should account for them fairly easy. But in saying that the Yankees of all teams are having that fairytale postseason. So not sure I can even write them off.

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    Well, they haven't started well. But the last series turned around when they got back to Yankee Stadium, so I guess there's a hell of a lot riding on the next game.

    Dodgers had a far stronger start against the Cubs and that one looks a bit harder to turn around.

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    World series is set up really well. Going to be a tense last couple of games, I think.

    EddieG, you still fancy the Astros?

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    Winner of the game in the morning will be winning the series. Going to be really tough to beat Kershaw but I think the Astros can do it.

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    I guess you're definitely sticking with the Astros now. Given the shit the city has been through in the last few months it's probably a good time to land a first world series in franchise history. Be a lot of neutrals supporting them.

    Seeing a fair bit of stuff especially in the LA media about how Kershaw doesn't have it in the clutch.

    Dodgers turning back to Rich Hill for game 6.

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    What a game that was. The best game I've ever seen. If this series gets another great game or two it'll be the best World Series of all time. Sticking with Houston. I've had money on them every week all season. So have them going for a big collect. Houston hasn't won a major sports championship in over 20 years. Since the Pistons last won the NBA I believe. So I'm rooting for them. Will be a good feeling.

    Yep. Kershaw much like David Price when it comes to the playoffs.

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