View Poll Results: British? How will you be voting on 23rd June 2016?

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Thread: The British Politics and Current Affairs Thread

  1. #41
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    Clegg and Leanne Wood doing well so far. Cameron, Farage and Miliband underwhelming.

    EDIT: Clegg on the attack on Cameron... not holding back.
    Last edited by Prime Time; 04-02-2015 at 04:18 PM.



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  2. #42
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    Very clever by the Lib Dems to IMMEDIATELY attack the Tories I think.

    Sturgeon isn't doing bad either.
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  3. #43
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    Hasn't changed my mind much. If in Wales I'd vote Plaid. I still find myself struggling to find a major party I trust.

  4. #44
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    Yeah, and it had to be done.

    The main thing is that Clegg can do well in this kind of situation and he will look better than most. Unfortunately for him, I'm getting the impression that no one is going to win this. It's got the wrong feel to it.



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  5. #45
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    Yeah I agree. These debates seem about shouting out party lines with very vague statements of intent and no room for specifics. Or at least, not enough room.

    Ed keeps slipping the details in though.

    Clegg always looks at ease too, whether he is or isn't.

    I work in the field of patient experience in the NHS - all its sectors - and I have to say that I fiercely support the Lib Dem view on placing importance on a desperately inadequate mental health service.
    Last edited by 'Plan; 04-02-2015 at 04:47 PM.
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  6. #46
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    I do appreciate a lot of what Clegg is saying. I cannot appreciate his actions of the past few years though. Particularly on tuition fees. I can't trust him.

  7. #47
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    We had a coalition government, not a Lib Dem government, so to judge a complicit half of a coalition government needing to compromise for a greater fiscal good by a manifesto written on the proviso of an exclusively Lib Dem government is grossly unfair. I remain completely supportive of Clegg and the Lib Dems, not for one mistake they made in their 2010 manifesto but for the good things they've done in government; good things that can be multiplied tenfold in an exclusive, unrestricted Lib Dem government. They can't undo their mistake without the chance they need to do so.

    Ugh. Got to check out for podcasting. More thoughts when I catch up!
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  8. #48
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    By that logic you shouldn't trust Cameron either. He's broken more of his pre-election pledges than Clegg.

    The rise in VAT, the top-down reorganisation of the NHS, means-testing child benefit, and cuts to front-line services... all things he promised not to do.

    I'm guessing they were probably all in the Lib Dem manifesto too, but still...



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  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by anonymous View Post
    Hasn't changed my mind much. If in Wales I'd vote Plaid. I still find myself struggling to find a major party I trust.
    Quote Originally Posted by Prime Time View Post
    By that logic you shouldn't trust Cameron either. He's broken more of his pre-election pledges than Clegg.

    The rise in VAT, the top-down reorganisation of the NHS, means-testing child benefit, and cuts to front-line services... all things he promised not to do.

    I'm guessing they were probably all in the Lib Dem manifesto too, but still...
    See my point above. I dislike and distrust them all.

    Clegg hurts more though . I voted for them. As a student. And I'm still furious as it was an issue that affected me. Once again he's speaking well but I refuse to believe him.

  10. #50
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    Without direct access to the coalition agreement I shan't allow judgement on broken election promises from 2010 inform my vote this year is simply my point.
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  11. #51
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    Ah, I see. I guess when you say they like Cameron, that was meant purely as contrary to Miliband, not an in general?

    Sounds like the women are having the best of it now we're into it. Leanne Wood in particular seems to be doing well.



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  12. #52
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    I think Cameron inspires confidence in leading a company far more. But I wouldn't trust him at all.

    Cameron may regret wanting all the minor parties in the debate. They're the only ones coming out well. To be honest, this debate is hurting Farage most I think.


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  13. #53
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    I think it might have done well for him in the longer term, though. Cameron isn't going to lose anything tonight, which he might have done in a straight fight with Miliband. More to the point, I suspect SNP and Plaid doing well hurts Ed more than it hurts DC.

    And yes, it's not a good night for Nigel at all. I wonder if that'll see a swing back towards either of the major parties in the coming days.



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  14. #54
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    I think Ed's come out okay. Especially compared with Farage and Cameron. Clegg continues to impress but whenever Ed's spoken I think he's done well.

    I don't like the pushy SNP lady at all. She's terrifying.

  15. #55
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    I think Ed's done OK too, but I don't think it'll swing anything. He's been outshone by the smaller parties.

    I couldn't agree less on Sturgeon. I'm considering migrating to Scotland. Might even vote 'yes' in a devolution referendum. I can take the kilt from the Halloween when I went as Roddy Piper.



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  16. #56
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    I've been impressed by Clegg and the Welsh party one. Labour are holding their own just about, which is more than can be said about UKIP...what a shame /sarcasm.

  17. #57
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    Apparently here's the early indications about a result:

    1 Sturgeon
    2 Wood
    3 Bennett
    4 Clegg
    5 Miliband
    6 Farage
    7 Cameron


    Must say, I'm a bit surprised at the last two. No idea about the sample size or anything like that, but if the research is valid it appears Cameron has had a mare. Would explain the frantic tweeting by Conservatives on Twitter, trying to manage the narrative.



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  18. #58
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    I'd put Clegg higher but agree with most of that. Farage should be bottom though. He was completely beaten.

  19. #59
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    I'd have him last too.

    I expect he's done well with people who already support them, though. I also expect he's probably done quite well in the Europe question, not least because he 'won' that one when Leanne Wood agreed that DC couldn't do anything about migration from the EU from inside it.

    I don't have strong feelings on immigration, but I imagine if you do then Farage probably won that question...



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  20. #60
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    I'm just watching the second hour now, and like you Prime I've no major feelings on immigration. I think you're right in the sense that those seeking confirmation will have, as always, found their bias inhibited perfectly by Farage but for those with strong feelings coupled with indecision he may have come off a little too bullish about it all. He just got quite aggressive with Clegg and I don't think it came off well quite honestly.

    I think Clegg is right on point with this right to claim point; removing the perhaps greatest impulse for people to come to Britain and abuse the system will remove people coming to Britain and abusing the system. Simple logic sees that through - no motivation, no action. So I see what he's saying there and I agree. Freedom of movement in Europe isn't the cause of the immigration problem as UKIP often seem to imply; it's the freedom of movement coupled with the impetus and ability to "get something for nothing" for lack of a better expression, be it benefits, cheap work, illegal settlement or whatever.

    Very good point by Sturgeon and Wood regarding the family of nations and how that plays into a potentially devolved referendum. I'm fully on side with that.

    Meanwhile, feels like the Greens are hopelessly ideological and nowhere near pragmatically minded enough to be a viable option for government.

    Find myself again on side with Clegg regarding housing as well; especially as someone currently investigating the possibilities of my first mortgage. But also agree with Labour's intentions regarding rent and tenancies. Conflicted.

    I understand I have an inherent bias but I'm back onside with the Lib Dems again fully after that debate.

    I find it interesting Prime that, according to that ranking, Clegg won out among the institutional parties. Fascinated to see how the support for Greens, Plaid and SNP plays out now. My final thought: very happy to see the growing multiplicity in British politics. I think that's only a good thing.
    Last edited by 'Plan; 04-02-2015 at 08:21 PM.
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  21. #61
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    It actually looks as if, the morning after, everyone has found their confirmation bias in this. The second lot of polls breaks down a little too convincingly like the expected popular vote does. Cameron has rebounded to a statistical tie with Miliband, much like the popular vote, there's not a lot of difference between Sturgeon and Farage, with Clegg behind them and the smallest parties further behind.


    Everyone keeps saying that the Greens are too ideological, but I actually thought she raised some good points about the consensus around austerity and how it everyone just accepts it. Bit of a shame that no one bothered to argue with her, because then we might have seen whether or not there was anything behind the consensus or if we just accepted it because because, but I guess that wasn't really the platform for a debate, ironically enough.

    To be honest, while the first one was pretty good, I'm not really a fan of these debates. Could do without more, as I'm not sure how much they add - or engage people who wouldn't otherwise be engaged. The Americans do them better.



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  22. #62
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    I think it adds plenty. I don't know this time around as obviously won't be back at work till next week with the Bank Holidays, but I vividly remember a whole bunch of people in 2010 getting very much into the election off the back of the debates when they wouldn't otherwise have done. I also think it's a very good thing, even if the debate does little to sway people, to see the leaders of smaller parties like the Greens and Plaid on stage next to heavyweights like Labour and Conservatives, especially if coalition politics is going to be increasingly regular in years to come.

    More voices in the political debate the better I say.
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  23. #63
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    I'd agree on the last point, but I think that's achieved now. To clarify, I don't care if we don't have any more; that's not the same as saying that I wish the one's we've had never happened.

    And yes, the first round in 2010 did get people interested, but it was basically just the one debate that achieved that. From the second one onwards, they've met with little more than spin and snide comments. We had enough of that anyway.


    They also give the impression that we're voting for the leaders, and we don't have a presidential system here. Unless you live in one of the five constituencies that Bennett, Cameron, Clegg, Farage or Miliband are standing in, you don't actually get to vote for anyone that spoke the other night. What would add plenty would be these kind of debates played out at the constituency level, well-attended around the country, where people can quiz the potential MP's themselves. But given that there are Hustings up and down the country and no one goes to them, I can't imagine it catching on.

    But the circus that goes around these things doesn't do very much for me, not least because no one really challenges each other, or is held to an answer.




    Anyone who is lurking around this thread, let us know your constituency and what the mood seems to be like on the ground.



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  24. #64
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    Right, I'm off on holiday for a week tomorrow. What are the chances of a definite swing one way or another before I get back?



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  25. #65
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    In that time the SNP will announce candidates for all of England knocking Labour out of the running.

    Farage will come out to huge public support and steal lots of votes.

    Clegg will punch Cameron midway through an interview.

    The SNP and UKILGBTSP will battle the election out.


    EDIT: With that I bid for farewell myself for a while . I'll be back but not posting for a bit...
    Last edited by anonymous; 04-03-2015 at 06:51 PM.

  26. #66
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    My constituency's Nottingham South. It's been Labour since 1992, and I highly doubt it will be any different this time, so I'll have no problem voting Green.

  27. #67
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    Area here has been Conservatives since mid 1920's and that won't be changing any time soon, although I'm not so sure that's so much that the area agrees with politics (although a large portion does) but more a sense of "Well the area will vote that way regardless, I might as well vote that way too"

  28. #68
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    Seems since I've been away that the campaign has turned a bit nasty. Polls aren't moving and the Conservatives, in particular, are trying to get the 'incumbent swing' that usually happens. No sign that it will happen enough, though. They might just about get away with enough to make them the biggest party. A lot of the experts seem to think, though, that coalition is good enough for Ed Miliband, while Cameron needs an outright majority, or enough of an increase to govern just with the lib dems and maybe the Northern Irish Unionist parties. Neither of those things looks likely right now.

    Currently Labour are still expected to be the largest party, with around 280 to 290 seats. The Conservatives are expected to take anything between 265 and 280.


    Nottingham South is an interesting one, because it's actually the least safe of all the Nottingham seats - but the city is so staunchly to the left (holdover from the miner's strike, etc., in the 80s) that even that one doesn't look like the Tories or UKIP have any real chance of grabbing the seat.



    This might interest some of you. I saw the result of an Ashcroft poll recently that found that a huge proportion of UKIP voters aren't people defecting from Labour, Tories or Lib Dems, but are people who didn't vote at all in 2010. What that will do to the election is anyone's guess. It seems that the Conservatives are the most likely to suffer the bleedout with about 32% of likely UKIP voters voting Tory in 2010, while only around 13% voted for Labour. Of course, Labour were hugely unpopular then, so how many of them would have been Labour voters in 2005 (or even 2015) is debatable.


    But what's interesting is that the percentages we hear about in the polls might well be skewed by an increase in the size of the voting electorate. You have to think that if this is the case, it could be good news for Labour and the Liberal Democrats - very bad news for the Conservatives overall, and especially in the East of England.



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  29. #69
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    New poll in today shows a big improvement for the Conservatives. It's the only one so far so should be treated with caution, but if the numbers were repeated nationally in May then Cameron would be very close to a majority, and could govern with the anticipated support he would get from the DUP and UUP. You'd have to expect a very right-wing platform with that coalition in charge.

    I'm not convinced that it isn't just a freak result yet, and am still looking at a poll of polls that has the two main parties locked in a virtual tie. But still, its an interesting development. Seems there is a slender chance of the Tories actually improving their position, rather than falling back.

    The same result also sees UKIP win nothing, and the Lib Dems reduced to single digits. Both things that make me think it won't happen quite like this.
    Last edited by Prime Time; 04-13-2015 at 05:09 PM.



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  30. #70
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    I think the Labour and Conservatives should fight back and form a centre-right super party just to annoy all these upstarts. A lab-con coalition.

    It would never happen but it would be my dream scenario. A powerful elected party.

  31. #71
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    Ha, it's weird, I wasn't thinking that they should do it... but this morning I was thinking that in many ways it makes more sense than several of the other options.

    You'd very quickly see breakaways on the right flank of the Tories (presumably to UKIP) and the left of Labour (maybe to Green, but likely to a new party) and that would reduce the majority. It'd also probably consume the Lib Dems in the fire.


    Saw an interesting thing in The Guardian today - apparently 'big business' has been attacking the Tories' new 'right-to-buy' policy. Be interesting to see what happens if the Conservatives do get into an argument with business interests. Presumably they can't win if people influenced by what these interests have to say stay at home on election day.


    EDIT: Just seen a prediction that says the Conservatives now have a 50% chance of keeping the seat vacated by the 'stag do Nazi', Aidan Burley, in Cannock Chase.
    Last edited by Prime Time; 04-15-2015 at 07:20 AM.



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  32. #72
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    Double posting again, but it's worth it.

    ITV are saying that the Liberal Democrats are going to be wiped out in their Southwest strongholds. That changes the game dramatically, because it was their strongest chance of keeping a reasonable number of MP's. So I'm going to focus on them and break down the Lib Dems, region by region.

    They were already going to take plenty of damage in the SW - big names like Jeremy Browne and Tessa Munt looked set to lose anyway. But this poll suggests that they will also lose Devon North and Yeovil, too, putting David Laws out of a job.

    Moving up the country, they are currently expected to win 3 seats in the region around Bristol and Bath, but two of those are in danger if they suffer the kind of swings we're hearing about. The Bath seat *should* be safe enough.

    They don't really have many seas in the midlands and the welsh marches, so expect nothing - but they should hold on to one of their Welsh seats, Ceredigion.


    On the South coast, Eastleigh is expected to go Tory, and Portsmouth South looks vulnerable too. They could have two seats down South, but there's a very good chance that the only seat they'll have is Lewes. In London, they'll lose some but should hold on to some too. In the Tory marginals Ed Davey is in a lot of danger, but Vince Cable should hold Twickenham. Simon Hughes, Lynn Featherstone and Sarah Teather will likely all lose to the Labour candidates. Moving into Essex, Bob Russell has a decent chance of holding Colchester but is susceptible to a big swing. Norman Lamb should be good enough to stay as their only MP in Norfolk.



    Now, let's skip up to the North. They've traditionally done very well in Scotland, but going into coalition with the Conservatives will not play well up there. All 9 of their seats in the East Scotland heartlands are expected to fuel an SNP surge, ousting the likes of Charles Kennedy and Danny Alexander. West Scotland is more of a Labour area, but the SNP are expected to gain two more seats from them, including Jo Swinson's.

    In the North of England, Tim Farron will hold on in Cumbria, but expect defeats in Berwick and Redcar. In the Northwest, Burnley should fall to Labour, and while Southport is currently predicted as a win it does look vulnerable, and the same is true of Hazel Grove in Manchester. All of which brings us to Yorkshire.

    Greg Mulholland should hold his seat. Nick Clegg SHOULD hold his seat, on paper. But everywhere I look I see signs that it is in play. An Ashcroft poll put him 2% behind he Labour candidate, while today it has broken that the Tory candidate in 2001 has told Conservatives to vote for Clegg to avoid a Labour MP. You have to imagine he's only done that because he's worried. Labour have also, if you believe what you read, run a 'decapitation' campaign on the LD leader in a seat where he is going to be vulnerable to a student-led 'Portillo moment'. If anyone is vulnerable to a disproportionately large swing, it's Nick.


    So, what's the best and worst case scenarios? Best, I think the shocks don't come off and they manage to hold 20+ seats. Clegg holds his seat and maybe, just maybe, they manage to act as kingmakers again.

    As for the worst case scenario... I doubt we're looking at complete wipeout. But they could well come close. There is a very real chance that they'll be reduced to just 7 seats. There is a very real chance that they'll lose their leader, and 5 of their 6 representatives in cabinet. There is a better than average chance that they'll be a supposedly progressive party with no female representation in Westminster.

    If the worst case scenario happens, the real question will then become - what on earth happens to them next?



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  33. #73
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    Well now I'm depressed.

    I will sign up, become a Lib Dem MP, then the party leader, rebuild them from the bottom up and come 2035's General Election I shall be Prime Minister of Britain!

    #VotePlan.
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  34. #74
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    Sorry 'Planman.

    As I say, this is just me speculating as to what will happen if this one poll turns out to be repeated more broadly. I do think Clegg is vulnerable - but other than that I don't expect you to end up in single digits. I'd put money on 15-20 being the final number. If Tories do defect to LD in Sheffield Hallam, I'm not sure Labour can take the seat.


    If that did happen though, smart money would be on Vince Cable being the new leader. Basically, he'd be the only candidate.



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  35. #75
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    Three weeks today is the election.

    The non-government leaders debate is today. Interesting set-up really. There's an opportunity for Ed Miliband to really make hay here, with no Cameron - given that he's the only person on stage with a chance of being PM. Of course, that also makes him the biggest target for everyone else.

    The Lib Dems are giving out playing cards with quotes for Tories, DUP and UKIP, warning against a 'triple threat' alliance of the three.

    And the IMF have apparently annihilated George Osbourne's economic forecast/plans.

    Just another morning in the campaign.



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  36. #76
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    I see these debates hurting the absent Clegg far more than Cameron I'm afraid. The minor parties will all secure more votes, as well as Ed (barring a catastrophic fail) and it will be Clegg who suffers most. I'm quite looking forward to tonight's contest. UKIP will be far and away the outsiders with most of the parties promoting left wing values.

    In regard to your earlier post, I don't see UKIP having any influence at all at the end of all this as I don't see anyone being willing to work with them. Even the Conservatives I see favouring the Lib Dems and SNP at this time.

  37. #77
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    I don't see UKIP having any influence at all, unless current predictions are way off. Best case scenario for them is three seats. DUP will win 9.

    That means that the Conservatives have to have 314 seats seats for that deal to give them even a majority of 1. Given they managed 307 last time, and will likely lose rather than gain seats, it's hard to imagine that coming off.


    More to the point, the one thing we (and the smaller party leaders) are missing when doing this talk of coalition is that there is little appetite for it in the main two parties. Labour and he Tories have both ruled out formal coalition with the SNP - the one party who look set to give either a workable majority. The leader of the Scottish Conservatives has said that there will be no coalition with UKIP, and even went so far as to say that both her, and Cameron's, preference in the result of a hung parliament is for a minority Tory government. I suspect that means the Lib Dems would need to hold 75% of their seats in order to exert any pressure on the Tories to reform the deal, which seems a pipe dream at the moment.

    As for Labour, with the SNP ruled out that leaves them needing to win more seats than expected, or to put together some kind of less formal arrangement with the SNP. They aren't going to deal with UKIP, and there's no appetite in the grassroots party to deal with a Liberal Democratic party that they see as tainted by 5 years of association with the Conservatives. I don't see a deal happening there under any circumstances, but one thing that might need to happen in order to make it work would be the head of Nick Clegg. Not just as tit-for-tat for the decapitation of Brown in 2010, but also because Clegg is too 'blue'.



    So here's the thing. The only parties that want coalition are UKIP and Lib Dems. Greens, Plaid, SNP have all ruled out joining them, while Labour and the Tories have no appetite for them and prefer to go it alone. The ultimate kicker is that neither of the two parties who want to join a coalition are likely to have the kind of parliamentary resources to make either of the big 2 change their minds.

    All of which points to a minority government, one way or the other. Which might explain why, according to a channel 4 blog, at least, both major parties are preparing for a snap election later in the year.

    EDIT: To be honest, I'm not sure Clegg can be hurt any more than he already is by his presence or absence in a debate. Cameron has far more to lose - but it's a risky business for Miliband. High stakes, high reward.
    Last edited by Prime Time; 04-16-2015 at 11:00 AM.



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  38. #78
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    I missed the debate. Newborns and all that. Was it worth catching up on?

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    Farage's meltdown at the audience is probably worth a watch.

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    It was more worth watching than the first debate, which was a bit of a damp squib. But to be honest you won't regret it if you don't.

    Ed did well, Nicola did well until she started badgering Ed about joining up to keep the Tories out (will play well in Scotland but may hurt Miliband in the South), Farage had his meltdown but probably hit the right notes with his own supporters and disenfranchised Tories, Natalie Bennett did well on immigration but was just there for much of it, Leanne Wood was competent but didn't hit the heights of the first.


    I think it was a blunder for DC not to show up, having watched it. But it wasn't the night that changed the election or anything like that.



    @lopprimetime

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